Hey Tony,

Thanks for looking! And, great question. This is currently being heavily debated by a lot of people. Basically, all the things you mention are also really big killers, but this year (and possibly next - and the next and the next if we're really unlucky) COVID-19 is going to additionally kill a lot of people. As for https://www.worldometers.info/, it seems to be a pretty interesting site and I think their data are probably pretty reasonable. That said, they are a company and use a proprietary algorithm to provide "estimated current numbers based on statistics and projections from the most reputable official organizations." (from their FAQ - you can find the link in small writing at the very bottom of their page).

Best wishes,

Andrei

Chime in entirely with your ‘Good things’ post.

I’ll check back often to get your unique angle.

What is your view on:

“https://www.worldometers.info/“ in general

and, Covid19 v Seasonal Flu v Smoking Related deaths; specifically,

as an Epidemiologist?

Warmest Regards to all

Tony

If Corona isolation gets too depressing, there is psychological (health insurance paid) video telephone help in Germany.The Kassenäztliche Vereinigung or health insurances might help you to find such a service. Don't know whether this applies to other countries as well.

Suspect UK strategy will mirror French fairly closely, just delayed by a few weeks. Looking at deaths per million it seems the UK is in earlier phase of spread v France.

I'd be very interested to see the evidence the UKs Behavioural Insights Team aka 'Nudge unit' is rumoured to be contributing to gov decision making. It seems their advice is strongly informing UK gov fears of unleashing proper lockdown on the public too soon.

Rob

It's interesting to see your analyses, However I think it's absolutist, to say covid isolation.

What for those of us participating in essential grass roots services. Volunteer Foodbanks, Homeless support, drop in advice centres. We do these things not for fun but because they are required.

Do you have any advice in maintaining this critical infrastructure ?

thanks

It's interesting to see your analyses, However I think it's absolutist, to say covid isolation.

What for those of us participating in essential grass roots services. Volunteer Foodbanks, Homeless support, drop in advice centres. We do these things not for fun but because they are required.

Do you have any advice in maintaining this critical infrastructure ?

thanks

I will also see what I can do to make the commenting process easier over the coming days. But it's not, I will admit, my priority! Depending how much I can write and how much other time I have, I will maybe see if someone else can help me with things...

Anyway, thanks for persisting! I hope you will consider commenting further.

I think your suggestions aren't bad. But I would still advise against doing much. Definitely don't open the door if you can avoid it. Definitely wash hands frequently. Definitely decline visits from well-intentioned neighbours. Although ultimately, people will probably need help and we have to do that too. Is there someone who can help without being a major vector for spread? healthy walks are good, but how will you ensure you always stay away from others? Two metres is guidance - the fact is we don't know what a safe distance is; we don't really even know how the virus is spreading (it's assumed aerosol, but...)

Hi Jay,

Thanks for the comment. The question you ask is a really important one: current estimates are that the incubation period is 5.1 days and that 97.5% of people develop symptoms by 11.5 days. So most people will be infectious before they have symptoms. More detail is provided in an article entitled The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application published on the 10 March 2020 by Stephen Lauer et al in the Annals of Internal Medicine.

Best wishes,

Andrei

is there good evidence on the number of days before any symptoms that a person can i infect others? i hD another comment but it took such a long time to go through the rigmarole of getting. link from you that ive forgotten what it was!